Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for Brent crude prices in the fourth quarter of the year from $90 to $80, and reduced its estimate for the average price in 2027 from $80 to $75, following the signing of a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysts at the investment bank said in a research note released late Monday that they now expect Gulf exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July, compared with the end of August in previous forecasts.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday, dropping by about five percent to their lowest level since March 10, following US President Donald Trump's announcement of a memorandum of understanding to end the US-Israeli war with Iran, which had closed the Strait of Hormuz.
Before the conflict, a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed through the strait.
Brent crude futures fell 0.3 percent to $82.94 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 0.1 percent to $80.66 a barrel by 0314 GMT.
Goldman Sachs expects West Texas Intermediate crude to average $75 in the last quarter of the year and $70 in 2027.
The bank also expects a somewhat stronger recovery in demand during the second half of 2026 and into 2027 thanks to improved purchasing power.
The bank said the risks to the outlook for Middle East oil supplies are twofold, noting that a return of Gulf oil exports to pre-war levels could be achieved with an increase of 12 million barrels per day in flows through the Strait of Hormuz above current levels.
In addition, the Gulf states may boost production more strongly in response to declining trade inventories in OECD countries.
